Page 14 - Tropic Magazine Issue 28

TROPIC • ECONOMY

Patchy picture

STIMULUS SUPPORT
The outlook for the Cairns
economy is a mixed bag as the
coronavirus pandemic recovery
begins.

Words: Renee Cluff

JobKeeper

$500/week for 20+ hours Cairns trend
Estimated 15,000 Cairns recipients
Ends 28th March unemployment rate: 6.4%
Source: Conus Quarterly, Dec 2020

At its peak, more than 20,000 people in 50 per cent and therefore if JobKeeper Looking Good
the Cairns region were recipients of the were to disappear they’d have to let go of Health care & social assistance
Federal Government’s JobKeeker scheme, a lot of staff. Education and training
which was introduced in March last year. “There’ll be other businesses down 30 per Public administration & safety
Economist Pete Faulkner, of Conus cent but might let 10 to 15 per cent of their Information media &
Business Consultancy Services, estimates staff go, or maybe none at all. telecommunications
that figure has dropped to about 15,000 The other consequence of JobKeeper and Retail trade
since the weekly payment was scaled back JobSeeker packages has been growth in Rental, hiring & real estate
from $700 to $500 in January. household saving.
“Certainly if you look nationally, the Mr Faulkner said the household sector
decline of JobKeeper numbers was much will drive the economy for the rest of Still Struggling
faster than expected, there’s been a this year. Accommodation & food services
decline of more than a million recipients,” The average savings ratio, which is the Arts and recreation
he told Tropic. percentage of household income put Transport, postal & warehousing
“I doubt we’ve seen as much of a fall aside for a rainy day, is just below Manufacturing
in Cairns because of the impacts on 20 per cent. Agriculture, forestry and fishing
tourism, but employment generally isn’t Federal Government figures show $200 Construction
looking too bad and job advertisements billion dollars nationally is now set aside
are looking pretty healthy.” in savings accounts. The Caveats
Mr Faulkner estimates that when “Yes, there’s going to be a wind-back of
JobKeeper payments wind up at the end stimulus but in reality the household • Construction sector growth
is expected as almost record-
of March, it will result in an extra four to sector has a lot of money stashed away,” high building approvals filter
six thousand Cairns workers joining the Mr Faulkner said. through.
unemployment queue. “It’s not all going to come out in one • Tourism-related retail trade is
“The ending of JobKeeper 2.0 doesn’t month but it will have a huge impact on
down.
mean suddenly that everyone loses their economic recovery.” • Domestic tourism destinations
jobs,” he said. are faring well. Mission Beach
“Some of those businesses, like the cruise businesses are reporting their
boats, are probably operating well below
best year in 25 years as Cairns
and Townsville residents flock
to the seaside village.
Worth noting
Federal Member for Leichhardt, Warren Entsch, says the JobKeeper Source: Herron Todd White CairnsWatch,
scheme will be reviewed. He’s pushing hard for a continuation of the November 2020
program but only for regions and industries that need it most.

14 • Tropic • Issue 28