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A global study of coral reefs thought to be the most resilient to climate change has found they will still be at risk if global warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a target set under the Paris agreement.
A team of scientists, including James Cook University’s Professor Scott Heron, used the latest generation of climate model projections to predict future thermal exposure of shallow-water coral reefs around the globe.
They found just 0.2 – or one fifth of one per cent – of coral reefs would avoid frequent bleaching under a 1.5°C climate warming scenario.
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“We identified thermal refuges – places where it’s thought coral reefs have a good chance of surviving warming oceans due to things like consistent upwelling of cool deep waters,” said Dr Heron.
“This analysis confirms that significant action on greenhouse gas emissions is urgent and needed this decade.
“Corals worldwide are at even greater risk from climate change than previously thought, especially as limiting warming to 1.5°C is looking increasingly unlikely.”
In fact, a report released last month by California-based non-profit climate research centre Berkeley Earth predicted the 1.5°C target will be reached much earlier than anticipated, in 2033.
That same week, NASA’s climate researchers released their report on Earth warming trends, noting that 2021 was about 1.1°C warmer than it was in the late 19th century, when the Industrial Revolution was underway.
Dr Heron said under an increase in global warming of 1.5°C, most corals systems won’t be able bounce back following times of heat stress because about a decade is required for coral communities to re-establish ecosystem functions.
“Most coral reefs won’t have time to recover between bleaching events,” he said.
“Promoting reef resilience, adaptation to higher temperatures and facilitating migration will be vital strategies to secure their survival.
“We also need to ramp up local actions to help reefs survive through already predicted impacts.”
Main points
- A study found even reefs with cool upwells are unlikely to survive a 1.5°C global temperature rise compared with pre-industrial levels
- The Paris agreement's goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C
- Other recent studies have warned the 1.5°C target will be reached this century, with one predicting a 2033 date
