##MP##
Parts of Far North Queensland are about to get their first taste of the wet season, with the chance of a tropical low and “monsoon-like” conditions.
Forecasters are closely watching the Arafura Sea, north of the Northern Territory, where there are signs a monsoon trough could be developing.
The monsoon generates north-westerly winds, bringing warm, moist air from equatorial regions.
Monsoon episodes can last a week or more, and usually generate large amounts of rain across northern Australia.
##BA##
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says a trough is forecast to develop across the Arafura Sea and northern Gulf of Carpentaria from Tuesday.
It says a tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the eastern Arafura Sea or the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely on Wednesday.
There’s a very low risk of it becoming a cyclone in the short term, and the BoM says it will move east-south-east across Cape York Peninsula and into the Coral Sea.
Longer term, there’s a slightly higher chance the low could become a cyclone over the Coral Sea, but it’s expected to move south-east away from the Queensland coast.
The combination of atmospheric influences will generate rain and thunderstorms across the region, with the potential for locally heavy falls.
In Cairns and the surrounding districts, the BoM says there’s a high to very high chance of rain this week, with thunderstorms likely.
Rain and storms over the Gulf of Carpentaria are expected to push in to Cape York Peninsula from mid-week.
Forecast models are divided on whether the trough north of the NT will become a monsoon, but one forecaster said conditions will be “monsoon like” in some areas.
The monsoon usually arrives over northern Australia late in December, but conditions have been favourable for development for a few weeks.
Main points
- Monsoon may be developing north of NT
- Tropical low likely to form in Gulf of Carpentaria
- Rain and storms likely but low chance of a cyclone
