Increasing chance of rain in FNQ later in October and in November (Noelle Otto)

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We’re not far away from getting some rain, according to the latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) climate outlook .

The outlook, published on Thursday, says there’s an 80 per cent chance of above median rainfall for much of eastern Australia, including the Far North, from October 17-30.

During that fortnight, much of the north-east tropics has at least three times the average chance of unusually high rainfall.

The region has a better than 80 per cent chance of above median rainfall in November, with Cape York Peninsula three times more likely to get unusually high rainfall.

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For the period from November to January, above median rainfall is very likely for Cape York Peninsula and moderately likely for other parts of the region.

The BoM says maximum and minimum temperatures are about to start rising, with above median figures for parts of the Far North in the second half of October and into November.

Conditions are being influenced by an established La Niña in the Pacific region, and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, which increases the chance of above average spring rainfall, particularly when combined with La Niña.

Sea surface temperatures are warmer than average around northern Australia, which is likely to be contributing to the wetter long-range forecasts.

WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT

Main points

  • Chance of rain in FNQ increases later this month
  • Expect above median rain in November
  • La Niña and warm sea surface temperatures boost rain prospects
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