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The Bureau of Meteorology says we could see an above-average number of cyclones in the coming season.
In its cyclone outlook, published on Tuesday, the BoM said warm sea surface temperatures and the established La Niña create favourable conditions for cyclone formation.
On average, 11 cyclones form in the Australian region each season, with four of them making landfall.
The BoM says there’s a 73 per cent chance we’ll see more cyclones in the Australian region during the coming season.
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In the eastern region, which includes Far North Queensland, there are four cyclones in an average season, with one making landfall.
There’s a 74 per cent chance of more cyclones in the eastern region this season.
In La Niña years, the first cyclone to make landfall on the Australian coast typically occurs earlier than normal, around the middle of December, instead of the usual January.
The BoM said the number of tropical lows that form during La Niña years is typically greater, with an average since 2005 of seven for all years, and 10 for La Niña years.
Tropical lows that do not intensify into cyclones, or lows that are the remnants of older cyclones, can still produce damaging winds, widespread rainfall, and dangerous flooding.
These impacts can extend beyond the tropics into southern areas of the country.
Main points
- 74% chance of above average cyclone season in FNQ
- Australia-wide, it's 73% chance of more cyclones than usual
- Higher chance of early cyclone landfall
